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Updated daily at 06:00 UTC

Football predictions today, backed by statistics

Our Dixon-Coles + Elo model estimates expected goals for every match, then turns them into probabilities for 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 and Both Teams To Score. No streaks, no gut feeling — just maths.

Free · Independent · Added daily · Never fake fixtures

Latest picks

Data as of Wednesday, 16 September 2026 — refreshed daily at 06:00 UTC

All predictions today →
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
RC Deportivo la Coruña vs Sevilla
Away Win @ 1.6857% Confidence
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
Club Atlético de Madrid vs CA Osasuna
Away Win @ 1.9748% Confidence
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
Levante UD vs Athletic Club
Away Win @ 1.4765% Confidence
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
FC Barcelona vs Real Racing Club de Santander
Home Win @ 1.0195% Confidence
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
Málaga CF vs Villarreal CF
Away Win @ 1.5163% Confidence
Thursday, 17 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET
🇪🇸 LA LIGA
Real Betis Balompié vs Getafe CF
Away Win @ 2.0546% Confidence
Thursday, 17 September 2026 • 15:00 UTC • 17:00 CET

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Alavés vs. Valencia - Game Highlights
Alavés vs. Valencia - Game Highlights →
football · La Liga

Watch the Game Highlights from Alavés vs. Valencia, 09/15/2026…

Rayo Vallecano vs. Espanyol - Game Highlights
Rayo Vallecano vs. Espanyol - Game Highlights →
football · La Liga

Watch the Game Highlights from Rayo Vallecano vs. Espanyol, 09/15/2026…

Man United need wins after bad week of JJ Gabriel unrest, protests and derby drama
Man United need wins after bad week of JJ Gabriel unrest, protests and derby drama →
football · Premier League

Things have gone from bad to worse this week for Man United, with defeats on and off the field. Victory agains…

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Most likely exact scores today

The bottom line of our model: the most probable exact scoreline for every pick today — useful for correct-score and scorecast markets.

La Liga
RC Deportivo la Coruña vs Sevilla
Pick: Away Win @ 1.68 • 57% • Correct Score: 0-1 (13%)
La Liga
Club Atlético de Madrid vs CA Osasuna
Pick: Away Win @ 1.97 • 48% • Correct Score: 0-1 (12%)
La Liga
Levante UD vs Athletic Club
Pick: Away Win @ 1.47 • 65% • Correct Score: 0-1 (13%)
La Liga
FC Barcelona vs Real Racing Club de Santander
Pick: Home Win @ 1.01 • 95% • Correct Score: 4-0 (15%)
La Liga
Málaga CF vs Villarreal CF
Pick: Away Win @ 1.51 • 63% • Correct Score: 0-1 (13%)
La Liga
Real Betis Balompié vs Getafe CF
Pick: Away Win @ 2.05 • 46% • Correct Score: 0-1 (12%)

How our predictions work

Each match is evaluated as an independent event. The model outputs a probability for the 1X2 result, totals and Both Teams To Score, plus a recommended pick and its fair price. This is statistical analysis for information purposes — not a promise of profit. 18+, bet responsibly.

Team strength from Elo ratings
Expected goals from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model
Probabilities for every market, refreshed daily

Updated daily at 06:00 UTC from football-data.org. Real fixtures only — we never display invented matches.

About today's football predictions

XWhiz produces football predictions every day from a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model combined with Elo ratings, using real fixtures from public sports data. Every pick includes a 1X2 recommendation, expected goals, Over/Under 2.5 and BTTS probabilities, plus the most likely correct score.

Why the model varies scores naturally

We never fabricate a scoreline. The most likely score is the one with the highest probability inside the model's score matrix, so you see natural variety — 2-0, 1-2, 3-1, 2-2 — instead of forced or repeated 1-1s. Predictions refresh daily at 06:00 UTC.

Responsible gambling: our predictions are statistical analysis for information and entertainment — they are not a guarantee of profit. 18+. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. · Get responsible gambling help

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