Prediction methodology

Each match is evaluated as an independent event. Team strength comes from Elo-style ratings blended with real league standings (attack and defence per game vs the league average). Expected goals feed a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, which produces a full 0–6 goal score matrix.

• 1X2: home/draw/away probabilities summed from the matrix.
• Over/Under 2.5 & BTTS: derived from the same matrix, not separate formulas.
• Correct score: the matrix argmax — the single most probable scoreline — so scores vary naturally.
• Odds shown: fair odds (100 ÷ probability), not bookmaker prices.

What the model cannot see

Late injuries, suspensions, rotation, weather and motivation are not in the numbers. Treat every pick as a probability estimate with stated confidence — never a guarantee of profit. Predictions refresh daily at 06:00 UTC.